Where they publish
Ian's Blog: Nominal Returns ↗
What they write about
Insurance · AI (Horizontal) · Venture Capital & Startups · Enterprise Software
Recent posts
- Will AI Destroy Life Insurance Before It Destroys Humanity?↗ 23 Sept 2026
AI doomsday scenarios are vastly overblown—extinction-level risk is far below 1%—and life insurers' muted reaction reflects the market's rational bet that AI-driven longevity gains outweigh tail catastrophe risks, making life insurance a potential winner if AI advances medicine.
- My September 11th Experience↗ 11 Sept 2026
A personal memoir of September 11th, 2001, from an investor who was in New York that day for an insurance conference, reflecting on how the tragedy reshaped his career and the insurance industry while lamenting societal forgetting of its impact.
- The Time Value of Money, Revisited↗ 1 Sept 2026
The author argues investors systematically undervalue the time required to monitor alternative investments—private equity, real estate, individual stocks—relative to their actual returns, and that this
- Accelerant Extinguishes Its Stock Listing↗ 20 Aug 2026
Accelerant, an insurance MGA platform, is returning to private equity after a year public at roughly IPO price. The deal suggests bearish market consensus on Accelerant's adverse-selection-laden business model is correct, yet Thoma Bravo's willingness to pay a premium despite widespread software underperformance raises questions about either hidden value or miscalculation.
- Situationally Aware, Permanent Blind Spot↗ 6 Aug 2026
Leopold Aschenbrenner's Situational Awareness fund collapsed not because his AI thesis was wrong, but because he repeatedly doubled down through correlated longs, inverted shorts, and 4X leverage—a mathematical certainty to fail on volatility. The article explains what he should have done instead.
- Nvidia Enters Financial Guarantee Insurance 30 Jul 2026
- State Farm: Is What’s Bad For Agents Good For Policyholders? 23 Jul 2026
- Do Insurers Need To Be In Predictions Markets? 1 Jul 2026
- Is SpaceX A Good D&O Risk? 12 Jun 2026
- The S&P Is Going To 10K (On The Way to 5K) 3 Jun 2026
- The College Admissions Oligopoly 26 May 2026
- The Truth Behind Hedge Fund and Private Credit “Excess” Returns 5 May 2026
- The Doomsday Clock Speeds Up For Cyber Underwriters 22 Apr 2026
- What Everyone Is Getting Wrong About Brokers and AI 10 Apr 2026
- Should Baseball Allow Players To Bet On Games? 27 Mar 2026
- March Madness and the Middle East 18 Mar 2026
- Will There Be Losses From Middle East Data Centers? 9 Mar 2026
- Which Insurance Tech Solutions Are The Most Insulated From AI? 4 Mar 2026
- The AI Risk For Insurance Brokers…Part I 17 Feb 2026
- What Investors Are Getting Wrong About The Tech Selloff 9 Feb 2026
- Debunking Super Bowl Quarterback Myths 5 Feb 2026
- Refilling the Cookie Jar 22 Jan 2026
- The Ten Biggest Events of the Insurance Quarter Century 15 Jan 2026
- Vote For The Insurance CEO of the Quarter Century 6 Jan 2026
- The Signal From Progressive’s Monster Dividend Announcement 22 Dec 2025
- Why Chubb Shouldn’t Buy AIG 18 Dec 2025
- Would It Be So Bad If AI Took Our Jobs? 9 Dec 2025
- The Bear Case on AI 24 Nov 2025
- AIG M&A Strategy: Dumb & Dumber 5 Nov 2025
- Financial Modeling 101: How To Account For A Hurricane Free Year 23 Oct 2025
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