Investing in AI · 17 September 2026

Stress Testing Anthropic’s Revenue Pre-IPO

Rob May, GP @ Half Court

A stress-test analysis of Anthropic's revenue trajectory pre-IPO, arguing the company faces a duration-mismatch risk—heavy upfront infrastructure costs betting on $190-200B revenue by 2028—where a 30%+ revenue shortfall would force costly renegotiation rather than near-term solvency collapse.

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Topics: AI (Horizontal) · AI Infrastructure · Venture Capital & Startups

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