Investing in AI · 30 August 2026 · Investment Thesis

How To Think About The Negative ROI on AI Investment

Rob May, GP @ Half Court

Most AI investments show negative ROI today not because the technology is broken, but because pricing reflected a lottery-ticket bet on AGI rather than underwriting actual business use cases. As compute costs collapse via cheaper chips, smaller models, and better infrastructure, many 2025 failures will pencil out profitably by 2027 without changing anything but the bill.

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Topics: AI (Horizontal) · AI Infrastructure

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