Tomasz Tunguz · 23 October 2026 · Industry Analysis

How Large is the AI Circle?

Tomasz Tunguz, MD @ Theory

AI infrastructure investment is reaching revenue payback twice as fast as the telecom internet build-out did, reaching 10% revenue-to-capex ratios in four years versus ten. The risk is circularity—whether venture-backed AI companies spending on compute are just recycling capital—but venture-backed firms now represent a sixth of US employment, suggesting a genuinely large addressable market beyond startup-to-startup spending.

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Topics: AI (Horizontal) · AI Infrastructure

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