Where they publish
Clouded Judgement ↗
What they write about
AI (Horizontal) · Enterprise Software · AI Infrastructure · Developer Tools · Energy & Climate · Data & Analytics
Recent posts
- Clouded Judgement 10.2.26 - Decision Models: The Next Shoe to Drop ↗ 2 Oct 2026
Decision models—specialized AI systems that output decisions with confidence scores rather than text—are rapidly emerging as a new AI layer, with companies like Jev achieving 13% adoption in 24 hours and major platforms (OpenAI, Databricks, Perplexity) launching competing offerings. The author argues they represent the next cost-driven shift in the model ecosystem, potentially replacing 10–15% of today's token spend at significantly lower prices.
- Clouded Judgement 9.25.26 - Own the Interaction Layer↗ 25 Sept 2026
Personal AI assistants are becoming the new interaction layer for commerce, disintermediating platforms like OTAs and e-commerce sites that currently own customer relationships. Incumbents risk margin compression as challengers embrace agents; many businesses built on consumer friction face existential threats.
- Clouded Judgement 9.18.26 - AI's Three Mile Island↗ 18 Sept 2026
AI safety oversight risks creating public panic that freezes development, much like nuclear's Three Mile Island moment; the OpenAI/Hugging Face incident could trigger cascading fear that stalls progress unless proper verification frameworks replace doom narratives.
- Clouded Judgement 9.11.26 - Paying for the Curve↗ 11 Sept 2026
The real breakthrough in AI isn't the $10M cost to solve a Millennium Prize Problem for a $1M prize—it's the exponential cost curve falling 9-900x per year, making today's cutting-edge feats accessible and cheap within months. SaaS multiples analysis included.
- Clouded Judgement 9.4.26 - Recurrent Depth↗ 4 Sept 2026
OpenAI's rumored Astra model may employ recurrent depth—looping tokens through the same transformer layers multiple times rather than adding new layers—potentially reducing memory footprint and inference costs while raising new questions about model auditability and monitoring.
- Clouded Judgement - 8.28.26 - Zero Data Retention↗ 28 Aug 2026
Zero data retention policies are driving enterprise adoption away from Anthropic's Fable 5 toward cheaper alternatives, signaling that customers now value privacy guarantees over frontier model capabilities—a shift that will reshape how AI labs build competitive moats.
- Clouded Judgement 8.21.26 - What Could Go Right?↗ 21 Aug 2026
Venture investing should focus on TAM expansion and upside potential rather than downside risk; with AI raising the ceiling from software budgets to headcount/consulting budgets, today's top-decile outcomes will dwarf historical precedents. Includes cloud SaaS valuation multiples and operating metrics.
- Clouded Judgement 8.14.26 - Useful Life↗ 14 Aug 2026
Coreweave's recontracting of older NVIDIA GPUs (A100s through 2029) and Jensen Huang's endorsement suggest GPU useful life extends far beyond the assumed 4–5 years, with implications for cloud compute economics and long-term chip value retention.
- Clouded Judgement 8.7.26 - Custom Tokens↗ 7 Aug 2026
Custom model fine-tuning is a booming but underestimated market requiring integration across training infrastructure, data preparation, evals, and deployment—with persistent operational challenges in serving, upgrading, and justifying economics versus frontier models.
- Clouded Judgement 7.31.26 - AWS CapEx ROI 31 Jul 2026
- Clouded Judgement 7.24.26 - The World Isn’t Zero Sum 24 Jul 2026
- Clouded Judgement 7.17.26 - Open Weights, Closed Prices? 17 Jul 2026
- Clouded Judgement 7.10.26 - Own Your Weights 10 Jul 2026
- Clouded Judgement 7.3.26 - The End of Compute Scarcity? Not So Fast 3 Jul 2026
- Clouded Judgement 6.26.26 - Time to Power 26 Jun 2026
- Clouded Judgement 6.19.26 - Workflows are King 19 Jun 2026
- Systems of Record Won the SaaS Era - Clearinghouses Will Win the Agents Era 12 Jun 2026
- Clouded Judgement 6.5.26 - Where Are the American Open Source Models? 5 Jun 2026
- Clouded Judgement 5.29.26 - The Second Life of a GPU 29 May 2026
- Clouded Judgement 5.22.26 - The Neocloud Boom 22 May 2026
- Clouded Judgement 5.14.26 - The Real App Store Opportunity 15 May 2026
- Clouded Judgement 5.8.26 - When Machines Out-Eat Humans 8 May 2026
- Clouded Judgement 5.1.26 - The Death of Per-Seat Pricing? 1 May 2026
- Clouded Judgement 4.24.26 - The AI-Driven Employment Explosion 24 Apr 2026
- Clouded Judgement 4.17.26 - Rising Tide, Hidden Risk 17 Apr 2026
- Clouded Judgement 4.10.26 - Long Live the Harness (Wrapper?) ! 10 Apr 2026
- Clouded Judgement 4.3.26 - Zero Knowledge, Maximum Trust 3 Apr 2026
- Clouded Judgement 3.26.26 - Per Token Pricing 27 Mar 2026
- Clouded Judgement 3.20.26 - Digital Twins 20 Mar 2026
- Clouded Judgement 3.13.26 - In Defense of Model Lab Profitability 13 Mar 2026
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